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Government data on Friday will show whether the job market’s remarkable resilience continued in August, or whether employers have begun to pull back as interest rates rise and recession fears mount.

Forecasters surveyed by FactSet expect the Labor Department to report that U.S. employers added about 300,000 jobs last month, well below July’s gain of 528,000. But economists had also expected a slowdown in July and were surprised when job growth accelerated. Other indicators suggest the job market remains strong: Job openings rose in July, to 11.2 million, and filings for unemployment benefits have edged down in recent weeks.

Still, a slowdown is inevitable at some point — and economists say it might even be good news. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are worried that the red-hot job market is contributing to inflation, as employers compete for a limited supply of workers, driving up wages and, ultimately, prices.

The Fed has been trying to cool the economy by raising interest rates. If job growth continues unabated, the central bank may get more aggressive — increasing the risk that its efforts to fight inflation will end up causing a recession. But if hiring slows too much, or companies begin to cut jobs outright, that will add to fears that a recession is even closer.

“Strong data is a double-edged sword,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist for Bank of America. “It reduces the near-term risk of recession, but it brings more Fed tightening, which increases the risk of a hard landing.”

The hot job market has given workers leverage to demand raises and the confidence to search for better opportunities. There are hints that may be starting to change; the number of people who voluntarily quit their jobs has gradually fallen in recent months, though it remains high. The report on Friday will show whether wage growth slowed in August, which would be bad news for workers struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living, but good news for policymakers who are concerned that wage growth is feeding inflation.

Economists are also hoping that high wages, combined with the ebbing of the pandemic, will lure more people back to the job market. The labor force grew earlier this year, but that progress has stalled in recent months, adding to employers’ difficulty filling jobs.

“The labor market is tighter and smaller than it’s been, so it’s really hard to assess its health,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, the payroll processor. “These high wages aren’t drawing workers in, and there’s something unhealthy about that.”